Today’s post spotlights the work of Richard Watson, a futurist based in England and Australia. His current project focuses on the future of public libraries. Public reports are expected during Aug/Sept, and Watson has been blogging about the project this month.
The work team has posited four scenarios, and each is an interesting read for anyone pondering the future:
Scenario 1: [...] this is a world of strong family ties where people trust each other. It is also a world where people are drawn to things that don’t change, where free public spaces that are open to old and young alike are valued and protected.
Scenario 2: Polarisation is very evident within public libraries, with the very best urban libraries attracting the very best library talent from around the world, whereas second and third tier libraries struggle to compete. As a result, library funding and library services are effectively split into two.
Scenario 3: [...] funding from private sources increases slightly and this enables public libraries to maintain their range of online and virtual services, which now includes technology support. In a surprise move some libraries then set up commercial services to compete with the high-end commercial information services and this generates a reasonable level of revenue for investment back in to the network. Nevertheless, a combination of staff shortages, resource scarcity and funding cuts mean that most libraries struggle to maintain vibrancy.
Scenario 4: The biggest problem for libraries, apart from funding, is relevance. People have access to information at home and at work and can buy or borrow digital books from a variety of online services at the click of a mouse. Libraries therefore attempt to compete by extending opening hours and by introducing a number of leisure related services ranging from healthcare screening and technology tuition to childcare and mental health gyms. Libraries also double as third spaces, providing free workspace to digital nomads and silver surfers that have nowhere else to go.
Watson commented today that “the most liked strategies coming out of all this to date are“:
- Building libraries as community hubs
- Establishing a national library brand (assumes a National Library Act)
- Teaching people to use technology (think Apple Genius Bar)
- Creating a sustainable funding strategy
1 Thanks to LibraryBytes for pointers to this project.
2 Image by Future Systems.
